The Defenestration of the tyrant Ben Ali opens new scenarios in the Arab world. This is purely a revolution popular, although the role played by the army (the non-prosecution) has certainly helped the transition.
Although this is basically a small little state of the Maghreb, Tunisia today, becomes the crucial case, which held the "Republican" should be widely supported. The aim is obviously to promote a "release" to democracy in the Arab world, especially in its fringes lay, until now kept under control thanks to the national game (as affirmed by a recent article in Le Monde Diplo ).
The reasons that make this possible are carried out essentially as follows:
a) even if I do not like the repression, even I have great sympathy for the religious fanaticism and the hard blows to Islamic parties as constituting a decidedly secular country, at least in its political expressions are more advanced. This gives an advantage to the forces of moderation who want to lead the transition process;
Although this is basically a small little state of the Maghreb, Tunisia today, becomes the crucial case, which held the "Republican" should be widely supported. The aim is obviously to promote a "release" to democracy in the Arab world, especially in its fringes lay, until now kept under control thanks to the national game (as affirmed by a recent article in Le Monde Diplo ).
The reasons that make this possible are carried out essentially as follows:
a) even if I do not like the repression, even I have great sympathy for the religious fanaticism and the hard blows to Islamic parties as constituting a decidedly secular country, at least in its political expressions are more advanced. This gives an advantage to the forces of moderation who want to lead the transition process;
b) the economic situation in Tunisia has a fairly thriving, thanks to a gradual process of opening. Do not be fooled by the GDP data, Libya has the highest per capita income but because of the effect oil. The opening led to the growth of some sectors of "maquiladoras" mostly textiles and of course tourism is quite developed. It is a basis upon which to build. Above all, the level of inequality has steadily declined and in 2000 (data WIDER ) the Gini was at the Italian level. Sucks then, but relatively decent compared to Arab countries. All this constitutes a scenario less favorable to political patronage and populist moviemnti especially by Muslims: the probability of success of a Hamas-based social policies in exchange for "evangelization" is lower (but not zero, from which the ' urgency of taking action);
c) the army is highly respected (at least as reported by El Pais, which monitors the situation), and then there is a key institution that is in the right hands. Certainly, African armies fall in love soon enough of power. ..
The steps and I seem to have essentially three result from the coordination of three key players:
a) The European Union should support the process by helping the organization of voting and using the granting of special status as a weapon of negotiation;
b) mdoerate Tunisian forces should be avoided in line Fiat iustitia, Pereat mundus. Unfortunately, we must accept some agreement with the party of Ben Ali, who represents the skeleton of power, they are looking for some character (maybe technocrat) that is not too dirty. Instead we must be firm on fighting corruption, given the power bloc of CEH Trabelsi (Ben Ali's wife) might end up with a de facto power immense;
c) no offense, but the U.S. should stay at home and they do not interfere. The U.S. support in the Arab world is a guarantee of defeat and lends itself to easy games rhetoric by those who want to undermine democratic change.
c) the army is highly respected (at least as reported by El Pais, which monitors the situation), and then there is a key institution that is in the right hands. Certainly, African armies fall in love soon enough of power. ..
The steps and I seem to have essentially three result from the coordination of three key players:
a) The European Union should support the process by helping the organization of voting and using the granting of special status as a weapon of negotiation;
b) mdoerate Tunisian forces should be avoided in line Fiat iustitia, Pereat mundus. Unfortunately, we must accept some agreement with the party of Ben Ali, who represents the skeleton of power, they are looking for some character (maybe technocrat) that is not too dirty. Instead we must be firm on fighting corruption, given the power bloc of CEH Trabelsi (Ben Ali's wife) might end up with a de facto power immense;
c) no offense, but the U.S. should stay at home and they do not interfere. The U.S. support in the Arab world is a guarantee of defeat and lends itself to easy games rhetoric by those who want to undermine democratic change.
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